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’It is illusory to believe that an electoral process can be carried out in Haiti’

On February 7, amid an atmosphere of political decline and heightened crisis, the mandate of Haiti’s transitional presidential council came to an end. Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled for August 30 and December 16, 2026. However, these elections are unlikely to happen, argues political scientist Frédéric Thomas in this op-ed for Le Monde.

Haiti is in a state of war. More than 8,100 murders were recorded between January and November 2025, while armed gangs continue to organize, strengthen themselves both militarily and economically and expand their territorial control. These groups control almost the entire metropolitan area of the capital, Port-au-Prince, including all main access routes, and ever-larger parts of the Centre and Artibonite departments. They have also established connections with transnational drug trafficking networks, which in turn has increased their power.

Logically, the White House listed Haiti among the countries most strongly advised against for travelers. Nevertheless, this has not stopped the US administration from announcing – against a backdrop of racist statements – that Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians living in the United States would end on February 3. Haitians had benefited from this renewable measure since the 2010 earthquake, which allowed nationals from countries in major crisis to remain in the US. The Department of Homeland Security declared that conditions in Haiti had improved enough to allow for a « [return] in safety » ; that deporting Haitians constituted « a strategic vote of confidence » in the country’s future ; and, more assuredly, that letting them stay was « contrary to the national interest of the United States. »

At the last minute, a federal judge temporarily suspended the Trump administration’s decision, granting a reprieve to some 330,000 Haitians. Yet the sword of Damocles still hangs over them and over Haiti, which is already facing mass deportations of its nationals from the Dominican Republic (more than 265,000 in 2025), while 1.4 million people – 12% of the population – have been displaced by violence. The available shelters are insufficient and overcrowded and lack basic necessities.

The expiration of the Transitional Presidential Council’s (TPC) mandate in Haiti on February 7 has further fueled tensions and divisions within a political class more concerned with seizing power than with addressing the dire situation of the population. National and international condemnation has grown, given the TPC’s discredit – its incompetence and entanglement in corruption scandals – and the threats posed by armed gangs.

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Les opinions exprimées et les arguments avancés dans cet article demeurent l'entière responsabilité de l'auteur-e et ne reflètent pas nécessairement ceux du CETRI.